Unlike India, most developed countries prepare de-seasonalised
GDP data, where the seasonal effects are netted out,
so as to compare any quarter with its previous one.
Here’s what the numbers say. In Q2 2008 (April to
June) real GDP for the euro zone fell by 0.2 per
cent over the previous quarter which is an
annualised of 0.8 per cent. France’s GDP shrank by
1.2 per cent (again, annualised); Italy’s by 1.1 per
cent; and Germany’s by 2 per cent, though that was
due to its relatively robust performance in the
previous quarter. Among the big four in the euro
area, only Spain managed to squeak a positive GDP
growth — 0.1 per cent for the quarter, or 0.4 per
cent annualised. That can hardly inspire confidence,
what with Spain’s unemployment at 10.7 per cent,
consumer price inflation at 5.3 per cent, a
shattered real estate sector and a current account
deficit that is almost 10 per cent of GDP. The
economic slowdown had started some nine months
earlier is now in the open, hurting badly and for
all to see.
I need to explain a bit about euro zone numbers for
the reader to have a better understanding of the
extent of the problem. Consumer price inflation
above 2 per cent is not normal in the euro zone.
Currently, it is running at 4 per cent with every
prospect of it rising to 5 per cent. Maintaining a
common currency across 12 nations at different
stages of the business cycle requires imposing
strict discipline on inflation. This is done by the
Frankfurt-based European Central Bank (ECB), whose
current president is a hard-nosed Frenchman called
Jean-Claude Trichet.
A common currency also needs a tight controls on
budget deficits and public debt across all euro zone
countries — which vary from a parsimonious Holland
to extravagantly statist nations like France and
Italy. This is allegedly imposed by the so-called
‘Stability and Growth Pact’. Adopted in 1997, it
requires the euro nations to maintain their annual
consolidated fiscal deficit at under 3 per cent of
GDP, and places a ceiling on national public debt at
less than 60 per cent of GDP. The public debt
ceiling has been breached several times by three of
the big four — France, Germany and Italy. But such
delinquencies have occurred in better economic
times. Today, amidst recession and unemployment, the
stage is set for serious breaches in the 3 per cent
budget deficit ceiling.
Consider France, and what its president, Nicolas
Sarkozy, is facing. An annualised drop in GDP of 1.2
per cent in Q2 2008 with prospects of worse to
follow; unemployment at 7.5 per cent; a trade
deficit of $ 70 billion; and an angry electorate
that is mad at his trying to force even limited
reforms, madder still at his playboy image, and
which believes in the fundamental right of “Aux
Barricades” — the rallying cry of the 1848
revolution when workers and citizens blocked the
streets against the government and its troops.
Sarkozy knows that if has to eventually reform
France’s dysfunctional labour laws, he has to gain
support from the people. That support is waning; and
will disappear if the recession sets in good and
proper. So, he wants to spend his way out of
trouble. Sarko is arguing for even higher fiscal
deficits (France’s is already 2.9 per cent of GDP),
lower interest rates, a weaker euro, and a much more
accommodating, reflationary fiscal and monetary
regime. He isn’t alone. Silvio Berlusconi of Italy
is a fellow traveller, as is Costas Karamanlis of
Greece.
Ranged against Sarko and his pals is ECB’s Trichet.
An inflation hawk, he hasn’t let the euro go,
despite US interest rate cuts, a progressively
weaker dollar and a steadily worsening economic
situation. According to Trichet, ECB must ensure
that inflationary expectations remain strictly
controlled; and that 4 per cent inflation or more is
unacceptable for the euro zone. Therefore, Trichet
will remain as firm as he can. Even if he weren’t to
raise rates, it is unlikely that the Frenchman will
lower them to please Sarko and France.
So, we will have a battle royal with high decibel
noises from the Élysée Palace matched by Trichet’s
Gallic disdain from Kaiserstrasse 29 at Frankfurt.
Neither stance will help. In the meanwhile, a euro
zone — crippled by Neanderthal labour laws and an
exchequer sapping social security system — may sink
into a long term recession. The US falls. But being
flexible, gets out of the hole quickly. When the
Europeans fall, they stay there for a while.
Published: Business Standard, August 2008