The GDP estimates for June-September
2012 were released on 30 November. Despite some
‘Let’s keep the flag flying’ cheers by odd
commentators, the numbers are quite terrible and
indicate that the country’s growth rate is
inexorably drifting down. Just look the growth of
real GDP over the last seven quarters:
• Jan-Mar 2011: 9.2 per cent
• Apr-Jun 2011: 8.0 per cent
• Jul-Sep 2011: 6.7 per cent
• Oct-Dec 2011: 6.1 per cent
• Jan-Mar 2012: 5.3 per cent
• Apr-Jun 2012: 5.5 per cent
• Jul-Sep 2012: 5.3 per cent.
The last three successive quarters has seen growth
at no more than 5.5 per cent — a far cry from the 9
per cent that we thought was our reform-driven
right.
My disquiet is not just about the falling rate of
GDP growth, now at its lowest ever for many quarters
and years. It stems from the fact that I can’t see
any drivers of near term growth. Consider
manufacturing, which accounts for 15 per cent of
GDP. It had a terrible year throughout 2011-12; and
the pains continue with 0.2 per cent growth in real
terms in April-June 2012, followed by 0.8 per cent
in July-September.
Services, too, are getting knocked. The category
‘trade, hotels, transport and communications’
comprises almost 29 per cent of GDP. Its growth has
fallen from 13.8 per cent and 9.8 per cent in the
first two quarters of 2011-12 to 4 per cent and 5.5
per cent, respectively, in 2012-13. If 44 per cent
of GDP — manufacturing and trade, hotels, etc. —
grew by 2.7 per cent in April-June 2012 versus a
year earlier, followed by 3.8 per cent in
July-September 2012, why should we expect the
remaining 56 per cent of the economy to grow so fast
as to record 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth in the second
half of the year? It is unlikely that we will exceed
5.5 per cent GDP growth in 2012-13. And with such
growth, I doubt if finance minister P. Chidambaram
can maintain the fiscal deficit at 5.1 per cent of
GDP, as promised by his predecessor.
That was the bad. Now to the good — the stuff that
wonderfully surprises you and re-kindles faith in
the ability of the country to progress. This example
involves a state government.
In November 2010, I wrote a column which railed
against the Sub-Registrar’s office at Mehrauli in
New Delhi. I described it as “an old, dirty,
abysmally maintained single-storied colonial
kutcherry — a dilapidated tehsil building long past
its sell-by date… The only sitting places are
concrete benches. These are dusty, betel stained and
pigeon-shat… You stand for hours…
This major establishment is worse than a dump.
People who transact here hate every moment of it. It
desperately needs a modern office; decent seating
spaces; and a clean work flow. Is that too hard to
ask for?”
Clearly some officials in Delhi thought ‘Enough was
enough’ and brought about a sea change. I went to
the same place on 22 November to be completely
bowled over. A new single story building has come up
beside the old one. Air-conditioned and so squeaky
clean that the gent’s toilet didn’t stink. You can’t
go past the electronically controlled main door
without an appointment, which you must get earlier
over the net. Based on that appointment, you are
given a magnetic key to enter a comfortable waiting
room. Our group was called to a counter within
minutes, where a clean cut uniformed young man — sky
blue shirts, dark trousers, and dark blue ties —
checked my documents and then entered some fields on
a computer. We were then directed to the
Sub-Registrar’s office, which also required using
the magnetic key. This gentleman pulled my file out
of the computer, re-checked the physical documents,
made me and the other party sign in his presence,
and released us. We moved to the third, and last,
room where the both of us and the witnesses were
photographed. End of the story. We exited in 20
minutes. And the sale deed was collected without the
slightest fuss two days later. No stupid questions.
No posturing for bribes — at least from us. No
needless delays.
This office has come into being from July 2012. The
older, filthy workplace also exists, and the
unfortunate ones of South Delhi whose localities do
not come under the purview of the new office must
still suffer pain. But there is no doubt about the
enormous improvement. I still cannot believe that a
sale deed for a property was registered so
transparently and professionally.
So, while we suffer from falling GDP growth, here’s
a tribute to Sheila Dikshit and her team for putting
in place an efficient establishment that bestows
cleanliness and dignity to those who transact and
who serve.
Published: Business World, December
2012