Some of you must have read stories of
the Scarlet Pimpernel written by Baroness Orczy. Set
in the Reign of Terror, these are about a foppish
English baronet, Sir Percy Blakeney, considered a
worthless idiot by all including his wife. But he is
actually a superhero called the Scarlet Pimpernel
with the singular mission of dashing off to France
at the drop of a hat to save its nobility from the
guillotine.
The original piece of work was a play that opened in
London in 1905 to huge success, which prompted
Baroness Orczy to write several highly popular
Scarlet Pimpernel novels and short stories, and
eventually retire in great luxury. The Scarlet
Pimpernel spawned many dual-life superheroes, such
as Clark Kent-to-Superman, Bruce Wayne-to-Batman,
and Don Diego de la Vega-to-Zorro.
Sir Percy had many witticisms. My favourite, which
the Pimpernel used in difficult situations was,
“Demmed tricky business this!” This morning, it kept
coming back at me as I was thinking of Kingfisher
Airlines.
Here is an airline which belongs to a business group
that makes money hand over fist from selling booze,
leasing out prime property in the heart of Bangalore
and from its chemicals and fertilisers business. Its
promoter, Vijay Mallya, also owns a cricket
franchise, has interest in football teams as well as
the Indian Formula 1, owns prime properties all over
the world, throws lavish parties, wears diamond
earrings, hob-nobs with all who matter and many
curvaceous ones that don’t, and is probably the
richest member of the Indian parliament. He is an
extrovert who gets cold feet in coughing up the
additional equity needed for the banks to
restructure its huge exposure to Kingfisher
Airlines.
And he runs a “Demmed tricky business”. Would you
like to start a business that requires astronomical
amounts of capital to buy machines which guzzle giga-gallons
of fuel, need large numbers of mostly overpaid
people per aircraft, carry huge overheads including
expensive inventory and pay fat parking fees — all
to sell unknown quantities of perishables? After
all, that’s what airline seats are. Each seat that
remains empty once the doors are closed is bereft of
value, as is a rotten apple, onion or tomato. The
fruits and vegetables are better off: they carry
lower fixed cost and can even be sold at a deep
discount. Not an empty seat of a flying machine.
That is why the history of airlines in any
competitive milieu is strewn with bankruptcies. In
the US since 9/11, there have been major Chapter 11
bankruptcy restructuring for US Air (in August 2002
and September 2004); United (in December 2002),
Northwest (September 2005), Delta (September 2005),
and several other local carriers. Internationally,
think of Sabena, Swissair, Ansett, Japan Airlines,
Mexicana. The list is long.
The notion that airlines need to be ‘saved’ comes
from an era when these were often government owned
and ‘flying the flag’ was equated with nationalism.
That’s passé. Like any other business, airlines need
to fend for themselves. Rahul Bajaj was right in
asking whether the government would consider bailing
out Bajaj Auto if it went bankrupt. The answer is
“No”. So too for airlines.
The solution is straightforward. If the economics
are right — which I doubt — the banks should ask for
a hefty increase in promoter’s equity contribution
before doing any re-scheduling. If Mallya wishes to
turn around Kingfisher, he should put a sizeable wad
of real money on the table — extra risk capital to
underwrite his faith in the airline’s future.
If UB equity is forthcoming, there could be a
worthwhile restructuring discussion. If not, the
banks should convert a sizeable part of their debt
to equity, grit their teeth and take a haircut, and
the pool their equity in search of a new bidder. In
the meanwhile, if the country wishes to increase the
heft of international investors in the industry, so
be it. I couldn’t care less where the extra capital
came from, so long as it is equity.
Unfortunately, this may not happen. Mallya is far
too well connected to behave like an over-leveraged
small or medium scale entrepreneur. He will bring
all his credit chips to bear, and the public sector
banks may well be ‘persuaded’ to hand out another
dole.
It’s a pity. Because Kingfisher’s service is
outstanding, as I can vouch being a Platinum card
frequent flier. The problem is the model. Fancy
seats, comely cabin crew and three course meals
don’t work in India. To understand how airlines
work, Mallya needs to look at how Indigo runs its
business. But he won’t. Because he thinks in terms
of an ultra-luxurious experience which can’t pay for
itself. So, brace for two ineffective restructuring
plays. One for Kingfisher. And the second,
therefore, for a far worse airline — Air India. With
a larger outflow to boot. “Demmed tricky business,
this!”
Published: Business World, December 2011