It seems to me that there are two and
a half types of people who say that we should always
try to accommodate China. The first are the
uncompromising peaceniks. For them, it is their
manifest fancy — and hence, the Almighty’s desire —
that Asia’s two largest nations must live together
in never-ending friendship, happiness and peace.
This lot doesn’t cares much about facts. India and
China living peacefully as the magnificent allies of
Asia is too a compelling an image to be tarnished by
facts. The group is small in number; yet, quite
significant in what I call its “English language
fourth estate influence”.
The second bunch of Hindi-Chini bhai bhai fellows
are what I call the “Chindia chaps”. Typically,
these are Indians who have been to Beijing and
Shanghai, and even places like Chongqing and Xian,
on more than once occasion — often as guests of
Chinese institutions or international bodies
organising conferences in China. They have attended
workshops and written papers. They have interacted
with Chinese academic counterparts. And they
seriously believe in their portmanteau construct
called Chindia — one in which China and India will
together create the largest and most cooperative
economic powerhouse of the world. No Chinese in high
government or in advisory positions that matter ever
speak of Chindia. Only Indians do. It is as if
creating Chindia gives India the entrée to the high
table. As a mythically equal partner of China.
The remaining half is business. I say half with a
reason. At one level, Indian business would love to
operate in China on a much larger scale — for which
it requires our government to be accommodating with
the Middle Kingdom. Equally, it has realised that
doing business in China is much tougher and far more
risky than in India and elsewhere. From an unabashed
desire to invest in China, business now has a much
more nuanced view. Therefore, while Indian companies
would prefer better economic and business ties with
China, they are not China champions like the major
US corporations. Indeed, many are concerned about
the way China is seeking to make commercial inroads
into India.
The pro-China groups in India are barking up the
wrong tree. They don’t — and won’t — understand that
China doesn’t give a fig about India. It has a very
simple two-fold view of itself: to be the most
powerful and influential nation in Asia and, with
the US, become the Club of Two that defines global
polity. India has no place in this scheme of things;
and China will never hesitate to put us down if
there is the slightest hint of our questioning this
dual mandate. The Chinese politicians are also quite
contemptuous of India. Since they care nothing about
vox populi, they see no merit in our democracy and
elections. Instead, they see great demerit in our
inability to force a more rapid pace of growth. In
their eyes, we are a second grade country with poor
roads and highways, poor manufacturing, severe power
shortages, horrible urban infrastructure and
significant poverty demanding greater rights in
global capitals.
Let’s have no doubt about a few things. China will
always support Pakistan, come hail or high water. It
will sooner or later start damming the Tsangpo
(which becomes the Brahmaputra when it enters India)
and the Sutlej. My unlettered guess is that the work
is about to start, or has just about started —
especially across the Sutlej. It will continue to
make strident claims on Arunachal Pradesh. It will
significantly strengthen its capabilities to move
troops, artillery and other fire-power along its
borders with India — both across Ladakh, Himachal
and Uttaranchal in the west and Arunachal in the
east. It will incessantly complain about the Dalai
Lama if he visits the border areas. It will never
allow India a hope in hell of becoming a permanent
member of the UN Security Council. And block any
move that gives India a greater role in today’s
league of nations.
China is no friend of India’s. It is, at best, an
occasional bedfellow that can suddenly leave you in
the lurch. China cares only for China, and if India
helps in furthering China’s interests, it can tag
along. Otherwise, it will be cut out. We can’t think
of allying with China with any degree of permanence.
Unfortunately, we still don’t seem to understand
that. One day we will. Hopefully, before it is too
late.
The solution is to be real. To realise that we need
to significantly strengthen our borders; call the
Chinese bluff with credibility; focus on rapidly
growing the economy; and build strong relationships
with the US, Russia and certain other key nations in
Asia. And to never shirk from telling them to back
off when they intrude in our affairs. That requires
a strong state with a sophisticated veneer. Can we
get there? You decide
Published: Business World, November 2009